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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 81

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to HOU 38, Center-41-J.Winchester. 14-D.Carter to HOU 49 for 11 yards (44-D.O'Daniel).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.38 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 38, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model