Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 73

Minnesota Vikings 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(13:51) 2-B.Colquitt punts 39 yards to SF 34, Center-58-A.Cutting. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 39 for 5 yards (34-A.Sendejo).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model