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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 21

Minnesota Vikings 7 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(:36) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.45 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model