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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 17

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 9-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.10 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP