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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 3

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 9-R.Gould 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +3.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.11 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 3, worth +0.54 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP