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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 80

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to MIN 44, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.14 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 80, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 37, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP