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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 56

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.30 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -2.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model