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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 90

Minnesota Vikings 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 2-B.Colquitt punts 61 yards to SF 29, Center-58-A.Cutting. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 47 for 18 yards (91-S.Weatherly).

The Three Options

GO -3.31 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.84 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model