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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 19

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:04) (Shotgun) 26-Dam.Williams right end ran ob at SF 16 for 3 yards (29-J.Tartt).

The Three Options

GO +3.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.91 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model