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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 24

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(9:34) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.49 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP