Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 63

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

(9:01) (Punt formation) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to KC 17, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.52 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 63, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model