Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 75

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

(5:18) (Punt formation) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to KC 35, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.24 EP
51% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 75, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model