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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 20

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(8:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.85 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 20, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model