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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 5

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:57) Direct snap to 26-Dam.Williams. 26-Dam.Williams up the middle to SF 1 for 4 yards (29-J.Tartt).

The Three Options

GO +4.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.02 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.42 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model