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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 36

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(1:13) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray left guard to LV 36 for no gain (34-K.Wright).

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.37 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model