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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 96

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 6-A.Cole punts 64 yards to BAL 32, Center-47-T.Sieg. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at LV 38 for 30 yards (47-T.Sieg).

The Three Options

GO -3.53 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.80 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 96, worth -5.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -2.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 53, worth -2.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model