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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 13

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(3:25) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle to BAL 13 for no gain (49-C.Board).

The Three Options

GO +3.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.17 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 13, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model