4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 75

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to LV 34, Center-46-N.Moore. 13-H.Renfrow pushed ob at LV 41 for 7 yards (57-K.Welch).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.85 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model