4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 56

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 6-A.Cole punts 37 yards to BAL 19, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.74 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 56, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 17, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model