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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 29

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 24

What Actually Happened

(:42) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +1.35 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 29, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 39, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model