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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 47

Chicago Bears 0 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 36 yards to LA 11, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.65 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 13, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP