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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 30

Chicago Bears 14 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(10:07) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 11-D.Mooney (31-R.Rochell).

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.74 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.90 EP