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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 64

Chicago Bears 14 – Los Angeles Rams 34

What Actually Happened

(2:23) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at CHI 27 for -9 yards (99-A.Donald).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.87 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 64, worth -2.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 22, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model