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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 35

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 8-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.14 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT +0.60 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model