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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 38

Chicago Bears 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(1:21) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at LA 45 for -7 yards (58-J.Hollins). FUMBLES (58-J.Hollins), RECOVERED by LA-41-K.Young at LA 42.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.29 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model