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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 32

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(13:56) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-V.Jefferson pushed ob at CHI 19 for 13 yards (33-Ja.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.91 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 32, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 42, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT +0.42 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model