Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 93

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to TB 46, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 85-J.Mickens to DAL 30 for 24 yards (32-C.Clement). PENALTY on TB-26-A.Adams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 40.

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.33 EP
58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 93, worth -5.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model