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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 17

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 2-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.93 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model