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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 3

Dallas Cowboys 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 2-G.Zuerlein 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP