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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 62

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 – Dallas Cowboys 19

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to DAL 13, Center-97-Z.Triner. 88-C.Lamb to DAL 25 for 12 yards (51-K.Minter; 43-R.Cockrell).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.30 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model