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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 47

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 – Dallas Cowboys 26

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 8-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to DAL 6, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 88-C.Lamb.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.50 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model