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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 92

Dallas Cowboys 26 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 5-B.Anger punts 62 yards to TB 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 85-J.Mickens to TB 37 for 7 yards (1-C.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.80 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 92, worth -5.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 50, worth -2.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model