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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 30

Dallas Cowboys 26 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 2-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.01 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model