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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 45

Houston Texans 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 11-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to JAX 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew. Punt Hangtime: 3.97

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.48 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 45, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP