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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 50

Houston Texans 27 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(9:54) 11-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.85 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 50, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP