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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 72

Houston Texans 34 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(:27) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to JAX 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 21 for 1 yard (24-T.Smith). Punt Hangtime: 3.4

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.29 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 72, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 30, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model