4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 67

Houston Texans 37 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(7:48) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to JAX 24, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew. Punt Hangtime: 4.59

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.12 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 25, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP