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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 61

Houston Texans 37 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 11-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds. Punt Hangtime: 4.03

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.68 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 61, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 20, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP