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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 33

Washington Commanders 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 3-D.Hopkins 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.50 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model