4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 85

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 1-T.Long punts 47 yards to WAS 38, Center-54-M.Overton. 1-D.Carter to LAC 48 for 14 yards (52-K.Fackrell; 32-A.Gilman).

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.36 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 85, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 43, worth -2.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model