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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 12

Washington Commanders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 3-D.Hopkins 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.69 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model