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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Philadelphia Eagles
4th & 4 at the 36
Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Atlanta Falcons 6
What Actually Happened
(12:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right.
The Three Options
GO
+0.50 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.68 EP
- 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -2.17 EP
KICK
+0.19 EP
- 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
- 33% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT
-0.32 EP
- Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
