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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 88

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-C.Nizialek punts 52 yards to PHI 36, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 38 for 2 yards (47-J.Harris; 3-M.Walker).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.77 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 88, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 46, worth -2.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model