4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 20

Philadelphia Eagles 15 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(7:03) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell right guard to ATL 19 for 1 yard (45-D.Jones; 54-F.Oluokun).

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.80 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 20, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model