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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 22

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 9-C.Nizialek punts 49 yards to PHI 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 20 for -1 yards (47-J.Harris; 84-C.Patterson).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.58 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP