4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 3

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(10:02) 7-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-C.Nizialek.

The Three Options

GO +3.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.38 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 3, worth +0.63 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP