4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 78

Philadelphia Eagles 22 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 8-A.Siposs punts 54 yards to ATL 24, Center-45-R.Lovato. 35-A.Williams to ATL 31 for 7 yards (19-J.Arcega-Whiteside; 57-T.Edwards). PENALTY on ATL-32-J.Hawkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.31 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 78, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 35, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model