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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 59

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 29

What Actually Happened

(3:19) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 31 for -10 yards (97-J.Hargrave).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.04 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -2.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.56 EP