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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 53

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(5:18) 4-M.Dickson punts 25 yards to IND 28, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds. PENALTY on SEA-52-D.Taylor, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at IND 28.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.67 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 53, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model