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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 64

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to SEA 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.99 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 22, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model